“The Next Billion Users”

The Next Billion Users: What Will It Really Take for Web3 to Go Mainstream?

Author

Scott Kasten
December 05, 2025

Web3 loves big numbers — TVL, market caps, daily active wallets, tokens in circulation.
But there’s one number that matters more than any chart: one billion.

The next billion users.Not crypto-native power users. Not early adopters.
Everyday people using blockchain-enabled apps without thinking about blockchains at all.

As 2025 comes to a close, Web3 has built the technology, survived the hype cycles, and outgrown its adolescence. But mainstream adoption remains just out of reach. So what will actually push Web3 from millions of users to billions?

Let’s take a clear look.

Where We Are Right Now

We’re in a very different place than Web3 was two years ago.

  • Infrastructure is fast and cheap. L2s, rollups, modular chains — technical limitations are no longer the bottleneck.

  • Wallet UX is getting better, though still too confusing for newcomers.

  • Regulation is clearer, especially in the U.S., Europe, and parts of Asia, giving builders more confidence.

  • Builders are more serious, focusing on utility over speculation.

  • Users are willing — but not compelled.

Mass adoption isn’t stalled. It’s waiting.

The Five Things Needed for the Next Billion Users

If the last five years of Web3 were about building infrastructure, the next five are about building experiences.

And the experiences that matter for mass adoption follow a predictable pattern — the same pattern that onboarded billions into Web2: simplicity, trust, usefulness, and invisibility.

Let’s break down the real requirements for onboarding a billion new users.

1. Invisible Infrastructure

Web3 today still “shows its plumbing.” Users see chains, addresses, gas fees, bridges, RPCs, signing prompts — the equivalent of seeing server logs every time you open Instagram.

The next billion users will not (and should not) be forced to understand any of this.

Invisible infrastructure looks like:

  • Auto-managed wallets (no seed phrases, social recovery by default)

  • Gas abstraction so users never see or pay gas

  • Chain abstraction where the app chooses the chain

  • Unified login (email → wallet under-the-hood)

  • Human-readable transactions instead of cryptic hashes

  • Instant finality (sub-second confirmation)

  • Mobile-first onboarding, not browser-extension-first

We are now seeing this emerge: Coinbase Smart Wallet, Privy, Magic Labs, Fireblocks consumer stacks, and new MPC-recovery wallets.

When Web3 happens behind the interface — not in front of it — adoption accelerates.

2. User Ownership That Actually Feels Like Ownership

We have spent years talking about decentralization and self-custody, but mass consumers don’t yet feel the value of ownership online.

To a typical user:

  • Owning a JPEG is not meaningful.

  • Owning a seed phrase is stressful.

  • Owning a token is speculative.

To onboard billions, Web3 must deliver ownership that feels intuitive, helpful, and safe.

Ownership that feels like ownership looks like:

  • Portable identity — log in anywhere with one identity you control

  • Loyalty points as assets — not locked inside a brand silo

  • Digital goods you can use across platforms (game items, memberships, perks)

  • User-controlled data — you choose who gets access, and get value in return

  • Creator memberships that deliver real perks and ongoing engagement

  • On-chain receipts that prove purchases, attendance, credentials

When ownership is tied to identity, rewards, and everyday utility, it becomes meaningful.

3. Frictionless Onramps

Crypto UX still feels like a foreign country.
The next billion will not adopt Web3 until Web3 feels like their existing financial life.

What this requires:

  • Instant card purchases of stablecoins

  • Bank accounts → wallets → bank accounts, seamlessly

  • Stablecoins treated like cash, not “crypto”

  • Regulated, consumer-friendly exchanges

  • Clear rules for custody and tax

  • 24/7 customer support, not Discord servers

  • Fiat-denominated on-chain experiences (Netflix + stablecoin, not Netflix + ETH)

Stablecoins are going to be the single biggest onboarding tool of the next five years.
Why?

Because they solve a real problem for billions: slow, expensive, unreliable money movement. Stablecoin rails are already being quietly integrated by banks, fintech apps, and remittance platforms.

The next billion enter Web3 through payments, not speculation.

4. Consumer Apps with Clear Everyday Value

This is arguably the most important unlock.

The next billion users will onboard the same way the last billion onboarded Web2:

  • They joined Facebook to connect.

  • They joined Instagram to share.

  • They joined Spotify to listen.

  • They joined Uber to ride.

  • They joined TikTok to be entertained.

No one onboarded because they wanted to learn TCP/IP, cookies, or HTML.

The apps that will onboard a billion Web3 users are not “crypto apps.”
They are:

  • Wallet-to-wallet messaging

  • Creator memberships with real utility

  • On-chain identity for login and reputation

  • Tokenized loyalty programs (retail, airlines, hospitality)

  • Blockchain-powered games with real digital portability

  • Decentralized social networks (Lens, Farcaster)

  • E-commerce + tokenized rewards

And most of all:

Apps where Web3 is invisible, but value-added.
No one will say, “I’m using a blockchain app.”
They’ll just say, “This app is better.”

5. Trust, Stability, and Security

This is the #1 psychological barrier to adoption.

People will not:

  • Store money

  • Store identity

  • Store credentials

  • Store memberships

  • Store assets
    unless the system feels stable, safe, and predictable.

Trust is built through:

  • Account recovery that works for real humans (family, phone, social recovery, recovery services)

  • Clear consumer protections

  • Insurance backed custody

  • Audited code and transparent security practices

  • Brand recognition (Coinbase, PayPal, Stripe, Shopify, major banks)

  • Regulated rails

  • Apps that “just work” with no crashes, stuck transactions, or confusing UX

Trust is the final frontier. When users trust the system — even if they don’t fully understand it — onboarding becomes frictionless.

The Next Billion Won’t Arrive from “Crypto People”… They’ll Arrive for Utility

Crypto-native users brought Web3 to where it is today.
But they are not the audience who will bring Web3 to the next billion users.

Mass adoption follows a clear pattern in technology history:

  • Early adopters join for ideology or novelty

  • Fast followers join for opportunity

  • The mainstream joins for utility and convenience

The onboarding story of Web3 will follow the same curve.

Mainstream users won’t come for:

  • Tokens

  • Yield

  • Governance votes

  • NFTs-as-profile-pictures

  • Memecoins

  • Technical purity

  • Ideological decentralization

These are subcultures — meaningful ones — but not mass-market drivers.

The next billion users will onboard Web3 because it becomes invisible inside things they already do.

Here’s what will actually bring the next billion users in:

1. Apps Where Their Identity Just Works Anywhere

ENS + Passports + on-chain credentials → “Log in anywhere without starting over.”

This solves:

  • Account lockouts

  • Starting over on new platforms

  • Managing dozens of accounts

  • Losing access when companies shut down

Identity portability is a killer feature.

2. Loyalty That Works Across Brands, Platforms & Apps

Imagine if airline miles worked at hotels.
Imagine if Starbucks points worked at restaurants.
Imagine if brand loyalty became consumer-owned digital currency.

This is going to be the first mass-market, billion-user Web3 use case.

3. Consumer Apps Using Wallet Messaging Behind the Scenes

Wallet-to-wallet messaging (XMTP, Push Protocol) will quietly transform:

  • Customer service

  • Creator-to-fan communication

  • Brand interactions

  • Community management

  • Transaction receipts

  • Verifications

Messaging is a Trojan horse for adoption.

4. Creators Offering On-Chain Memberships and Rewards

Creators bring audiences.
Audiences bring adoption.

Creators will lead Web3 into:

  • Membership tiers

  • Collectible moments

  • Token-gated content

  • On-chain fan clubs

  • Digital badges and achievement history

Creators will onboard millions by accident.

5. Banks & Fintech Apps Using Crypto Rails Without Saying “Crypto”

Users won’t know they’re using blockchain.
They’ll just know:

  • Payments clear instantly

  • Fees are cheaper

  • Transfers don’t get stuck

  • Everything feels faster

Behind the scenes, stablecoins and rollups will be doing the heavy lifting.

Mass adoption happens when users stop noticing the technology.

People don’t say:

  • “I’m using TCP/IP.”

  • “I’m using HTTPS.”

  • “I’m using OAuth.”

They say:

  • “I’m watching Netflix.”

  • “I’m paying with Apple Pay.”

  • “I’m logging in.”

Web3 will hit one billion users when it stops being a product and becomes infrastructure.

Where This Leaves Us Heading into 2026

1. “Are we really that close to mainstream adoption?”

Closer than ever — but not quite there.

The infrastructure is ready, regulation is stabilizing, and major companies are quietly integrating Web3 technology behind the scenes.But mainstream adoption requires invisible UX, effortless onboarding, and apps with everyday value.

2026 is shaping up as the first year where normal people use Web3 without knowing it.

2. “Is this all still too risky or too speculative?”

Speculation will always exist in crypto (just like stocks and real estate), but Web3’s future is not speculation — it’s infrastructure.

Stablecoins, identity systems, messaging protocols, digital property rights, and loyalty tokens all provide real utility without requiring users to gamble. You will be able to use Web3 without ever touching a volatile asset.

3. “So do I need to buy a token to participate?”

No.
In fact, the next billion users won’t buy anything at all — they’ll simply use apps.
Web3 will be baked into:

  • memberships

  • loyalty points

  • logins

  • digital goods

  • messaging

  • creator experiences

  • payments
    without requiring speculative behavior or technical knowledge.

Tokens are for the infrastructure layer, not the user layer.

4. “What about wallets? Are we all supposed to manage private keys?”

Not necessarily.
The future of wallets is seamless, secure, and human-friendly:

  • passkeys

  • social recovery

  • MPC wallets

  • email-login wallets

  • biometrics

  • cloud-recovered keys

Within 12–24 months, most mainstream users won’t even know they have a wallet.
It will be just another login method.

5. “Why hasn’t any ‘killer app’ emerged yet?”

Because the killer app needs both:

  • mature infrastructure

  • and

  • a user experience indistinguishable from Web2

We’re just now reaching that convergence point. Messaging, loyalty, and creator platforms are the strongest candidates.

The first billion-user Web3 app will almost certainly be something familiar — a social network, a commerce app, a game, or a messaging tool — where Web3 is the engine, not the brand.

This doesn’t mean that breakthrough apps haven’t already made their mark.

6. “Do brands and businesses actually care about Web3?”

Increasingly, yes. But they care less about “crypto” and more about:

  • customer-owned loyalty

  • portable identity

  • tokenized engagement

  • traceable rewards

  • creator partnerships

  • interoperable digital goods

  • stablecoin payments

Nearly every major retailer, entertainment brand, airline, or sports franchise is exploring Web3, even if they’re not announcing it publicly yet. They’re preparing for a world where the customer owns the relationship, not the platform.

7. “How do I personally prepare for this shift?”

You don’t need to gamble, trade, or become an expert.
A simple path:

  • get comfortable with a modern wallet

  • understand digital property rights

  • follow major trends (identity, messaging, loyalty)

  • pay attention to stablecoin and payments innovation

  • learn the difference between real utility and hype

You prepare the same way you prepared for Web2 — by exploring, experimenting, and staying informed.

8. “Is this going to disrupt everything the way Web2 did?”

Not overnight — but over time, yes. Web3 won’t break the current system… It will update it.

Just as Web2 modernized communication, Web3 will modernize ownership, identity, and value exchange.

The biggest disruption will be cultural: moving from user-as-product → user-as-participant.

Where This Leaves Us Heading into 2026

If 2024–2025 were about building infrastructure, 2026 is the year consumer crypto quietly emerges in the background:

  • Web3 UX is almost “normal app” level

  • Regulation is stabilizing

  • The biggest brands are experimenting thoughtfully

  • On-chain identity + on-chain messaging will unlock new patterns

  • And digital property rights will become part of everyday life

For the first time, the pieces are aligned.
The next billion users are closer than ever — and they may arrive without knowing they’re using Web3 at all.

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